Breathing out: consumer confidence lifts – we're finally exhaling, even if nothing underneath has changed

29% net optimism

↑+2pts on last week ↑+2pts on last year

3 Jul 2026

The exhale happened everywhere at once

Optimism is back above pre-Iran war levels for the first time. Politics, weather, football – the release came from every direction in the same week. Burnham brings energy people want to believe in, the heat finally breaks, and the World Cup has settled into a rhythm we can actually live with. Nothing underneath has changed. We'll take the relief anyway.

Relief, it turns out, is relative. Fear of global conflict, interest rates and inflation have all fallen hard since the height of the crisis – yet on the job market, house prices and the global economy we're still more scared than we were before the war started. People aren't celebrating a better world. They're accepting a damaged one over one on the brink.

As our qual community put it: then, "the world could end today." Now, "head down, keep going."

And after years of crouching, we're keen to spend – not because we're flush, just because we're done scrimping forever. "Feel great about the coming weeks" has edged above its three-year average for the first time. What's coming back is the spend that gives life shape: trips, family time, fun for the kids, weddings, festivals.

Burnham's timing is impeccable. Fear of the job market is nudging 50%, the highest since 2020 – and here comes a politician promising to fix youth unemployment (57% call it a great idea) and build growth in every postcode. The North is most prepared to believe him. London's the wobble: a "No. 10 North" is his least loved idea, and Londoners are now the most worried of the job market in the country. We're backing his appetite for the challenge, not yet believing he can deliver it.

The World Cup has found its groove too. We've stopped fighting the time zones – highlights viewing is up eight points on 2022, and the tournament now lives in clips and "did you see that goal?" It gets people talking (65%, climbing every week), which is exactly what a country short of easy conversation needed. England? We trudge on together – "they'll go far" and "it's on too late" are neck and neck for the first time.

So what should brands do?

• Ride the release – people feel lighter for the first time in months; meet the pent-up spend before it fades.
• Ready your regional story – Manchesterism will run for months; now's the time to show where you fit.
• Prepare for the comedown – borrowed relief runs out fast once real pressure resurfaces.

Source: Konfidant Mood of the Nation, 3 July 2026, base 2,020