End of term: consumer confidence dips to 24% – school’s out, Burnham’s in and the distractions are running out

24% net optimism

↓3pt Down this week ↓5pts on last year

24 Jul 2026

The final whistle took the lift with it

Net optimism has slipped to 24% this week. The four-week read holds at 27%, so July’s lift hasn’t disappeared. It has lost its easiest source.

The World Cup gave Britain a shared script. 62% say it brought people together, 57% say it gave the country a lift and 56% feel proud of the team. Even third place counts as a real achievement for 44%. The tournament gave us conversation, belonging and distraction in one go. Now the final whistle has blown.

Good weather now carries the whole job. Weather leads the country’s shared conversation, ahead of news and sport. Sunshine gives people an affordable reason to leave the house, see others and make something of the day. Confidence in the country’s foundations hasn’t returned. The weather simply helps us look away.

Call it borrowed relief, not recovery.

Burnham has bought himself a hearing, not trust. More people now say he convinces them things will get better, while fewer feel deflated. Net trust in government still shows no bounce. People warm to the man, not the machine.

His early cost-of-living move lands because it starts with help, not pain. Scrapping VAT on energy bills would make a meaningful difference to 23%. A bigger 32% take it as proof he takes the cost of living seriously, while 48% say even small savings help.

The signal lands before the saving does.

Worry about affording the basics has risen most clearly among households earning £15,000 to £40,000 – the people least able to dismiss small relief as symbolic. For Burnham, every little has helped. Autumn will ask for more than a little.

School holidays now expose the fragility of that lift. Among parents, 45% feel excited for the break and 44% already look forward to its end. Six weeks brings family time alongside childcare, food, travel and the pressure to create memories. Home, parks and sunshine will do much of the work. For many families, the budget has made those choices already.

“Please just let the weather hold.”

The squeeze has also changed how people say no. People can frame cuts to furniture, foreign holidays and new cars as careful judgement. 44%, 41% and 36% respectively feel comfortable admitting they buy less because of money.

Essentials carry a different emotional cost. Comfort drops to 3% for groceries, 0% for children’s clothes and -7% for children’s presents. Those cuts expose strain, not prudence.

Higher earners can say “I can’t afford it” most freely because nobody doubts their position. 53% openly admit it, and 22% feel they stood their ground afterwards. Among households earning under £30,000, 46% admit it and 27% feel weak or embarrassed.

Brands will hear the same words from both groups. They signal confidence for one and constraint for the other.

So what should brands do?

• Keep people out in the sun – create cheap, social reasons to show up and help the lift last.
• Take the load off parents – six weeks of budget juggling starts now; nearby, simple and low-cost wins.
• Make “yes” easier – people have practised opting out; remove hidden cost, planning effort and social awkwardness.

Source: Konfidant Mood of the Nation, 24 July 2026. Main wave base 1,947; 12-week analysis base 2,000 per week.