The Burnham identity

As Labour starts hunting for someone to replace Starmer, it's doing it in front of a country that's fed up with politics.

Our latest data sizes the mood: 79% are jaded. And at the sharp end, 4.4 million more of us rate ourselves a straight "10 out of 10" jaded than we did when we were watching to see if a lettuce could outlast Liz Truss.

I get asked a lot why Starmer – who seems, on the face of it, a pretty decent chap – ended up so disliked. Three things.

First, the fears moved. The ones that dominate now are the ones that hit you in the stomach – money, jobs, taxes – and the slower-burn worries like the planet, the NHS and schools have quietly dropped down the pile.

Second, people decided he doesn't get ordinary life. And once that’s lodged, you can't believe he's getting up tomorrow with your problems at the top of his list.

Third, dissonance. He promised change. We hoped for a human-rights lawyer fighting for Team GB – somewhere between Martin Lewis and Erin Brockovich. We got a man who turned conviction into a constantly changing five-point plan.

So what about Burnham?

Start with the momentum, because every brand owner reading this knows exactly how magic that stuff is and how hard it is to build. Support went from 20% on 12 June, to 21% on 19 June, then jumped to 35% by the 23rd. Rayner, Miliband, Streeting, Cooper – all still milling around 5%.

Then there's his image. The reason he's working is simple: he comes across as a bloke who understands how it actually feels right now. We've been telling brands for months that you have to show people you've clocked their pain before they'll trust you to fix anything, and Burnham does that without trying. He makes you believe the right things are on his list.

But a man of the people is also a man who'll spend on the people. And with three-quarters of the country thinking they're better off than everyone around them, most of us assume we'll be the ones picking up the tab for somebody else.

There's a slower worry underneath it too: nobody trusts him on the economy. Which is a problem, given that's THE thing the next few years depend on.

So when Burnham makes it to No 10, the appointment that matters isn't him. It's the Chancellor – someone who can make that empathy feel like it won't cost us.

So, why am I banging on about this today? If you're running anything customer-facing, you need to be asking yourself: how do we deliver for a consumer that wants to be looked after and left no poorer for it? That's the tension every advert, product and service now has to work out how to hold.

Join us on 2 July at 11am to get into what this changed mood means for the things people will actually trust, choose and pay for.

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